The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has a few problems. Foremost among them is their inability to compete with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in fundraising. Compounding their problems is an embezzlement scandal.

House Republicans have had to deal with the nearly $2 million tab from its embezzlement scandal ($725,000 stolen by their former treasurer, and continued legal and accounting costs trying to sort out the mess), not to mention the severe public embarrassment which allows people like me to say, "Republicans run their committees the same way they run the country."
(Daily Kos)

The Minnesota implications are profound. The NRCC simply doesn't have their act together and it will hurt their candidates across the country whether in targeted races they want to defend, open seats or first-term Democrats they want to dislodge.

This only compounds the problems in the state Republican Party. As TwoPuttTommy has noted ... repeatedly, Ron Carey's mismanagement of his party and his party's finances provides an added advantage to the DFL.

Republicans locally and nationally want to protect Michele Bachmann's seat, keep Jim Ramstad's seat Republican and oust Tim Walz. They aren't even considering having to defend John Kline's seat -- it is supposed to be safe.

Their problem is that they might not get much help from the NRCC:

But there's another major side-effect of the scandal, as noted by the subscription-only Roll Call:

The committee will need to hire an outside firm to conduct a standard audit of its books for 2007, and until that audit is complete, the NRCC will not be able to take out any bank loans to fund independent expenditure campaigns in late-breaking races [...]

The ability to obtain a line of credit, while standard practice for a national party committee, could be particularly important for the NRCC this fall. The committee had $6.7 million in cash on hand as of April 30 and has 30 open seats to defend and several incumbents being threatened by the cash-flush Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The DCCC closed April with more than $45 million in the bank.

The audit is only expected to last six weeks once begun (they haven't yet), but NRCC chair doesn't sound too confident about the matter.

When asked if the NRCC would be in a position to borrow money from a bank this fall, committee Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) said: "I think so, but we'll just have to now work that through."

(Daily Kos)

It is the middle of June and they haven't even begun cleaning up the mess. They can't really even begin to address the almost $40 million deficit they have to the DCCC.

Next, there's the problems facing the MN Republican Party. They have their own embezzlement scandal. They've had to revise the last six years worth of FEC filings. They are under FBI investigation. Their fundraising lags behind the DFL's as well. We'll find out exactly how much when they submit their quarterly numbers at the end of the month.

Implications for Tim Walz

So first off, the NRCC will most likely have to forget about challenging Tim Walz. Walz already has a substantial fundraising lead plus a dedicated grassroots base willing to do the same thing they did in 2006. Don't forget that many, many Republicans voted Democrat in 2006 and if anything the Republican brand has been trashed even more by the Bush Administration in the intervening months.

Then consider the Republican MN-01 challengers anemic fundraising so far. Brian Davis raised $28,000 in the first quarter and made a $8,000 contribution to his own campaign. Dick Day barely raised $16,000. Conversely, Walz raised over $350,000 during the same period.

Obviously, we'll know more in July when they file their quarterly returns, but I'm giving even odds that Walz continues to whup them in the fundraising department.

Implications for Elwyn Tinklenberg

I don't think that there is any doubt that the Republicans will spend money to protect bat-**** crazy Michele Bachmann. Apparently, she's the kind of Republican that the NRCC likes. She's going to need the NRCC's help because she has a propensity for saying really stupid things and achieving great feats of embarrassment on a regular basis. But don't take my word for it, just read Dump Michele Bachmann on a regular basis.

The Cook Report PVI rating for MN-06 is only +5 so Elwyn Tinklenberg has a real shot considering the myriad problems Bachmann is going to face. Let's detail her problems quickly:

• Shooting herself ni the foot by saying something crazy.
• The Republican brand is in the toilet.
• The NRCC is having trouble raising money.
• Shooting herself in the other foot by doing something crazy.
• The voters that know her best, like her least -- Stillwater -- what will happen now that MN-06 voters have seen her in action for two years.

If the DCCC gets behind El Tink, he could have the money to compete. The question is will he build the grassroots organization to compete?

Implications for Ashwin Madia

The NRCC has targeted this race, but as I've said, they could have trouble helping out their candidate, Erik Paulsen. In a district that has a majority of DFLers holding the seats at the State Capitol, a far right winger like Paulsen is going to have a hard time. He's going to need a lot of money to obfuscate his knuckle-dragging, mouth-breather record. Therein lies his problem.

Ashwin Madia is on the DCCC's Red-to-Blue program and garnering national attention. He's already shown fundraising prowess even while campaigning hard for the party endorsement. Now with the DFL, the big MN donors and the DCCC behind him, he will have more than enough money to compete.

The other problem for Paulsen is that Ashwin will be running a strong grassroots campaign which means that Paulsen will need even more money. Republicans simply cannot counteract a strong door-to-door effort. They're only answer is to spend more money and this year the cupboards are bare.

Implications for Steve Sarvi

I haven't mentioned Steve Sarvi until now, but he could pull off a huge upset and privatize Colonel Kline. When you consider that the NRCC must fund Bachmann and must find a way to fund Paulsen, there is not going to be any money left over for Kline. There are simply too many races the NRCC has to defend across the country. The NRCC have to be counting on Kline holding his district without their help.

This district is turning blue. After the 2004 elections, the Republicans held 18 of 20 of the House seats in the district. After 2006, they hold 12 and one of those victories was by merely 100 votes. The DFL held their two, upset 4 incumbents and grabbed two open seats. After Kevin Dahle's shocking special election win, the DFL holds 8 of 12 of the Senate seats in the district. There have been further retirements; Denis Ozment is one of the last moderate Republicans left in the State House. Mike Obermueller lost by 100 votes last time. He is working harder and smarter than last time and looks to be one of the prime candidates to provide the DFL our Pawlenty-proof majority in the House.

I have documented how poorly Kline's constituents think of him. Incumbents under 50% approval rating are vulnerable ... Kline's is at 39%. Kline is weak. Kline is rude. Kline is wrong on Iraq, healthcare, vet issues, transportation, the economy and just about everything.

In 2006, a vet bounced a rude, unpopular Congressman. Some of you may remember Gil Gutknecht. A certain teacher and Sargeant Major from Mankato bounced him out of office. Steve is running the exact same kind of race. He has just as compelling of a story.

Steve is a Kosovo and Iraq Vet. He's seen firsthand how the Bush Administration runs war on the cheap while wasting billions on corrupt no-bid contracts. On Steve's first day in Iraq "I slammed my Humvee's door shut and it fell off," he relates. He's a three-time small-town mayor and has been city administrator for three small southern Minnesota towns.

He's seen the effects of Kline's wrong stance on Iraq, his unwillingness to support the troops and his fiscal responsibility at a very personal level and as a vet, former small-town mayor and small-town city administrator, he is uniquely positioned to criticize Kline.