Analysis of Jesse Ventura's possible entrance into MN-SEN race
Former governor Jesse Ventura spoke to MPR yesterday and would not definitely say if he will be running against Norm Coleman and Al Franken for the MN-SEN seat. But it sure sounded like something.
"That's the reason I run. Not to sell books. I run because it angers me," Ventura says.
"And here's Ventura again sounding as if he has already made up his mind: "All you Minnesotans, take a good hard look at all three of us. And you decide, if you were in a dark alley, which one of the three of us would you want with you," he says."
Ventura told AP in responding to the NPR reporter's question about why he would run, "I gave him the reasons why I would run. But I said ultimately, it will come down to whether I want to change my lifestyle and go to that lifestyle or not."
Ventura says bluntly that no one knows whether he will run -- not even his wife. He says the decision won't be made until next Tuesday, the filing deadline.
(MPR)
I wrote him off as a joke in 1998 and he beat Norm and Skip Humphrey to become governor. What impact will he have in 2008? While I'm not going to write him off, I don't think he'll win, but will he damage Al Franken's chances or Norm's most?
In 1998 he stole enough votes from both parties and the mythical Jesse voter appeared at the polls for the first (and only?) time to put him over the top. However, there are a number of new factors in 2008 that make a Jesse candidacy unpredictable.
First, he is a known factor. He was our governor for 4 years. He is not a fresh face on the scene (that role goes to Al). We know that he's a moderate and fits into the spectrum as more of a DFLer than a Republican. After 4 years of governing, this much is clear.
Second, this is a Presidential year. 1998 was not. There will be an extra 5-10% turning out because Barack Obama is exciting a lot of people. It's the Obama and Franken campaigns' jobs to make sure they turn out for Al. If the mythical Jesse voter appears at the polls this year, they may be voting for Obama to end the war and end our suffering under Republican rule first. They might not be turning out just for Jesse as they did in '98. Obama may have coattails. We Franken supporters sure hope so.
Third, in 1998 Skip Humphrey ran a classic, old school DFL grasp-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory campaign. In contrast, Al Franken is running a grassroots, volunteer-driven campaign that has proven to be effective. Furthermore, Al is as far from the boring, stodgy, old-school DFL candidate as you can get.
Fourth, how will Jesse compete financially? This is going to be the most expensive Senate race in the history of the Universe. Al has been outraising Norm in every quarter. Norm has raised $13M and Al has raised $9M. I can't see Jesse raising $3-4M to compete with the ad buys that Norm and Al will run.
Free media? Sure. You bet. Al and Norm have been working that, too, and will continue to get it. I don't see Jesse having any advantage, here. Especially since he has a long-running feud with the "weasels" as he once called the press.
Finally, the one poll conducted by Republican-owned KSTP that included Jesse gives the edge to Norm:
(KSTP)
Obviously, this may all be useless speculation if Jesse doesn't run. We'll find out next Tuesday.
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Ventura
If Ventura enters the race he will split the Dem votes with Franken and he will also split the independent votes with Coleman. Coleman will lose some Republican votes to Jesse, but not enough to make a difference. Whether Jesse gets in or not, Franken loses and Coleman is reelected. Sorry.
Get Strategic on this
One reason Public Higher Education became more -- much more expensive -- in Minnesota is because Ventura didn't think investments in much more than Community Colleges were all that critical. We have that record now, and we need to exploit it fully should Ventura run.
Property Taxes -- yep, Pawlenty is responsible for much of the increase -- but Ventura is too. It isn't something the Senate deals with really, but if he runs, time is to make sure this information is out there and clear.
Ventura was not all that great on infrastructure -- bridges and roads. In fact the 35W Saga really dates back to his administration. Details matter -- this guy was governor for 4 years and did and didn't do things. Let's focus on the specifics.
Ventura IS a joke
But he's a joke that can guarantee another 6 years of Coleman.
My guess is
that a Ventura candidacy *may*--I said *may*--help Franken, not Coleman. This is because I see reason for Ventura to enter the contest, except to remove Coleman from office.
Ventura hates the war. Ventura hates Coleman, too. At this point, Franken is behind in the polls--if Ventura is entering the race, it's possible that he's doing so to hurt Coleman, not to seal the doom of the "already-hurting" Franken.
Maybe I'm wrong, maybe it's like Patrick, above, sees it: that the only result of Ventura candidacy will be peeling a small but significant number of votes from both opponents. But I think we have learned by now that it's very hard to predict what Ventura "actually thinks" and what he "is actually going to do." It may be that he thinks he can actually win the office 1)given Coleman's opportunistic underacheiver record as Senator and 2) the "wet blanket" popular enthusiasm for the Franken candidacy so far.
Is there something we didn't know last month?
Full disclosure: I am a member of the DFL state central committee, and bound by that position to not criticize any official endorsement decision of the DFL or to oppose an endorsed DFL candidate or to support a candidate running against an endorsed candidate. (I am free to criticize Amy Klobuchar all I want, since she is an elected official, not an endorsed candidate.)
All that said, is there anything at all new in this Senate race that we didn't know before the Rochester endorsing convention? Have there been any new tidbits of gossip about Al Franken? Has there been some new revelations about Norm Coleman? And, in fact, is there anything even remotely new about speculation that Jesse Ventura might run?
It seems to me that absolutely nothing has changed since the June 7th vote to endorse Franken. Fundamentally, on that date the decision was made that will eventually determine the outcome at the November 4th election. Our situation now is to see how it all plays out.
deeply flawed process
the problem is not in the amount of information available to voters on June 7th, but in the number of voters. Having only 1200 delegates choose our senate candidate hasn't worked out well (and not so great with Hatch for gov. either.) Maybe some dfl committee could make changes to improve the process.
At least we have a strong field of candidates for gov in 2010, so have betters odds of fielding a solid candidate. I keep reading the Mn blogs hoping to see some hint of a primary challenge, as Franken chances of winning look mighty slim.
Actually
Actually, having 1200 delegates choose our Senate candidate probably isn't as bad as having Chuck Schumer pick that candidate all by himself.
6 more years
Jessie in the race will end any chance Franken had, or any other Democrat that would have been in the race.
I'm sure there are many that believe Palmeyer or Ciresi would have made a difference.
They are dreamers, it is hard to beat an incumbent and unless Norm is caught in something illegal, he is home safe.
I just hope that the Democrats will have such a majority it will make both Leiberman and Coleman irrelevant.
Minority Report
Well, I can't say that I really believe Al wins with Jesse in or out. Hope he does, but the odds are not good.
HOWEVER, there is an analysis angle by which I can at least convince myself that his odds IMPROVE if Jesse jumps in...
First, understand that Jesse himself can't win for all the reasons given above, plus two more:
1) When he ran for Guv, he had a shot at getting the votes of some dyed-in-the-wool Republicans, because they did not trust the recently-converted Norm. His record as Guv makes that impossible now.
2) When he ran for Guv, he had a shot at getting the votes of some dyed-in-the-wool DFLers, largely because Skip foolishly played the game of trying to pander to the electorate, in his case, by promising over and over NOT to spend more on this or that. I remember reading an analysis just before election day that the candidate who had promised to spend the most had in fact been Ventura. Skip did the near impossible - he made the 3rd party guy look more like a Democrat. Again, now that Ventura has a record, I don't think Franken could make that mistake even if he tried.
So, where are Jesse's potential votes? Right now, they are ALL within the ranks of the "not DFL, not GOP, I-vote-the-person-not-the-party" types, and, even among those, his support really comes from the ones who are always looking for a reason to vote against someone.
Right now, in a two-way race, Coleman gets almost all of those votes, because he's been successful so far at giving folks reasons to vote against Al.
Also, keep in mind that though Jesse likes to play the buffoon, he's no dummy. He won't attack Al. If he gets in, he knows the job is to keep Norm from running away with the race. He will do a lot of Al's dirty work, and enable Al (if he's smart) to look like the most dignified of the three alternatives.
Franken's best scenario is this:
* 3-way race
* Hope Jesse grabs all the malcontents and the vote-against'ers
* Hope Jesse can gain traction with just one issue or one group of persuadable voters that would otherwise vote Coleman.
* Hope Obama absolutely catches fire, DFL GOTV efforts bear fruit, and a significant number of Republican-leaners get demoralized and stay home.
Only if the DFL base vote is much larger than the GOP base vote, AND Jesse gets in and keeps a large chunk of the rest from going to Coleman, does Al win. In this scenario, he wins with only about 40%, if he's lucky...