Race for a Pawlenty-proof Majority

Get to know the DFL challengers to incumbent Republicans or DFLers who are vying for open seats. mnblue brings you all the information you could possibly want about all the DFL candidates campaigning for seats in the MN House of Representatives in the 2008 election. The primary contributor is Justin C. Adams although Minnesota Brown and The Big E have contributed as well.

• 4A: John Persell
• 16B: Steve Andrews
• 17A: Jim Godfrey
• 32B: Lee Carlson
• 34A: Marcia Krueger
• 37B: Phil Sterner
• 38B: Mike Obermueller
• 41A: Kevin Staunton
• 49A: Ted Butler
• 49B: Jerry Newton
• 51A: Shawn Hamilton
• 52B: Kate Christopher
• 59B: Bobby Joe Champion
• 61B: Jeff Hayden

Larry Jacobs and Eric Ostermeier released a study of the chances of achieving a Pawlenty-proof majority. They say it all depends upon defending 9 first-term Representatives, defending 6 open seats previously and winning a 5 of the 11 open seats formerly held by retiring Republicans. They make no assessment of the chances of any DFL challengers ... they believe incumbents are safe. They do not take into account that many suburbs are turning blue.

Here is the biggest sleeper story of the 2008 elections: the DFL may win enough seats in the Minnesota House of Representatives to build a majority large enough to override Governor Tim Pawlenty's veto. If the DFL can win 5 net pick-ups in the fall election, the Democrats would neuter the Governor's veto and greatly diminish his influence on the legislative process.

Governor Pawlenty has faced Democratic majorities in the Senate during his entire term in office and in the House since the 2006 elections. The Governor has effectively battled the Democratic majorities by making 70 vetoes in his 6 years in office and 54 of them since 2007.

...

Democrats have more targets of opportunity this year, some of which have been created by the GOP itself. The vast majority of incumbents are re-elected, which means that races without an incumbent open up opportunities for the opposition to pick-up seats that had previously ben controlled by the other party.

In 2008 22 percent of House districts that had been controlled by Republicans will have no incumbent running for re-election (11 of 49). By contrast, ony 7 percent of DFL-controlled seats are open (6 of 85). Put another way, Republicans have nearly twice as many seats to defend even though the DFL has far more total House seats to protect.
(Will Governor Pawlenty Become Irrelevant?)