The improbable rise of Ashwin Madia

-- [We're half way there, so please help us raise $2,000 for Ashwin] --

I met Ashwin Madia in early December of 2007. I had already interviewed the other two candidates for the MN-03 DFL endorsement, Sen. Terri Bonoff and Jim Hovland. Bonoff had a solid, experienced campaign staff already hired and loads of endorsents ... she seemed inevitable. Hovland was remarkably progressive for a mayor of Edina that just switched teams.

We met at the Perkins at 494 & Hemlock Ave N. as one of the first snowfalls of the year started. He told me about his background -- born here to recent immigrants who arrived with nothing. He went to High School in Osseo and attended the University of Minnesota. He's a Marine vet who served in Iraq and an attorney. He explained his positions on the issues and claimed he would shock a few people with his campaign. You can read that original interview here. I liked everything I heard, but as with any neo-phyte candidate the proof would come out. Talk is one thing ...

I received word on December 14, 2007 that there would be a forum with the three MN-03 DFL candidates at the Ridgedale Public Library. I showed up and I was impressed:

Ashwin Madia won the debate hands down. Bonoff and Hovland stumbled throughout though Hovland did get stronger as the debate went on. Madia articulated clear points that showed his comprehensive understanding of every issue he talked about. He gave precise answers on all the topics. It's not that Bonoff and Hovland gave poor answers except for a couple of occasions, but they sounded vague in comparison.

Ashwin had established a foothold in this race and ran with it. Volunteers began signing up. Towards February it would become a flood. He was really exciting DFLers in the 3rd district. He would hold events and pull double to triple the number of attendees that his opponents could draw.

Jim Hovland, used to a more sedate pace in Republican politics, never really got his campaign rolling. Despite all her advantages, Terri Bonoff couldn't hold off Ashwin. He got so many more people out to precinct caucus that he started the convention process with an advantage of having more of his people moving on to become delegates at their Senate District conventions.

Bonoff had her own distinct advantage -- all of here colleagues at the legislature, the superdelegates, supported her. Her problem was she was not convincing enough delegates to stay close to Ashwin. As the Senate convention process proceeded, the MN-03 race was parralleling the Presidential race -- Bonoff might have enough superdelegates to prevent Ashwin from clinching the endorsement. Ashwin had almost the 60% necessary to clinch endorsement among the elected delegates, but about 53% when the superdelegates were factored in.

As the April 12th convention drew nearer, it appeared that Bonoff's only hope was to block the endorsement.

It appeared to be working. In frustration at the process I drove home after the 6th ballot composing a bitter rant about the superdelegates. I checked in the other bloggers who'd stuck it out and Bonoff conceded before the 9th ballot with Ashwin a few delegates away from clinching and moving towards the win. I should have stuck around ... sigh.

It truly is improbable that a kid born in this country to immigrants who arrived in America with $19 in their pockets could run for Congress. Ashwin has said on numerous that this story could only happen in America.

Now he faces just as stiff of a challenge. I think he's up to the task. The Republicans have shown in these last few days that they are perfectly willing to play dirty. It's all they have to run on as their candidate is bland, is pretending to be a moderate and has taken virtually no stands on the issues important to Minnesotans.

Ashwin outraised his opponent in the 2nd quarter despite spending a quarter of it clinching his nomination. His volunteer effort continues to roll along. Ashwin is incredibly hard-working and so is his campaign. Nobody will outwork Ashwin.

The voting demographics in the 3rd district give me a lot of hope. The majority of State legislators are DFLers and the combined efforts of Obama, Franken, Madia and State House candidates are going to turn out a huge number of DFL voters. Conversely, Paulsen is disassociating himself from the Republican brand. Neither his signs nor his website indicate he's a Republican.

While the DC Pundits are considering this race a toss-up, but there are no official polls. I'm looking forward to some poll results in the near future to give us an idea of where things stand. With the way MN-03, Minnesota and the nation are trending, I think the polls will show the improbable becoming more probable.