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MN-03: No surprise here, Bonoff goes negative
[UPDATE: Gavin Sullivan has Terri's letter]
Since Ashwin Madia leads Terri Bonoff by a healthy but technically not insurmountable margin, Terri has two possible strategies. One is to hold out for a no endorsement at the April 12th MN-03 Convention. The other is to go negative. So far she has chosen one of these paths and I think she will attempt the other as well.
In a contrast letter sent to Third district DFL delegates, Bonoff outlines the reasons why she thinks she's a stronger general election candidate than Ashwin Madia (whom I've endorsed):
- People can look at my record, my positions, and my core beliefs and know if they elect me they can trust where I'll stand on the issues. I've been researched by voters, the press and my Republican opponents [there's been more than one? Never mind...] Ashwin is an unknown commodity who just moved into the district to run for Congress. He has no record to speak of and has changed parties and positions on critical issues without being forthright about his time as a Republican and Dole supporter in colege, his work for John McCain in 2000 and his anti-labor articles that he has published.
Wow, where to begin? As noted, this is what's called a "contrast piece," but really, you could take out the positive stuff about Bonoff and it would just be a negative hit piece based on the kinds of whisper campaigns Bonoff derided in an email last week.
(MN Campaign Report)
Her positive message did not sway the delegates of MN-03 at their district conventions. Her bevy of legislators endorsing her campaign didn't garner her the majority of the delegates. She needs to convince the dozen undecideds that she deserves her support. She also needs to keep her soft supporters with her. So how will going negative help her campaign?
Her campaign staff are gambling that they can raise the negatives on Ashwin and push the undecided delegates away from him. They won't be voting for Terri, they would be voting against Ashwin. They hope that any soft support he has might see the errors of their ways. This is always risky. She'll certainly galvanize her staunch supporters, but she risks alienating her soft support that doesn't want to see her embarrass herself like this. On a later ballot they may decide to switch. They might leave in disgust. I've seen that happen, too. It will most definitely not convince Ashwin's supporters to switch sides.
What will the superdelegates do? Will they tolerate the negative campaigning?
Another effect which y'all can watch develop is that this may just make Ashwin Madia an even better candidate. We know that Republican Erik Paulsen's main strategy will negative campaigning. If Ashwin can shrug this off, it will just show how much of a better candidate he is.
The parallels to Hillary Clinton's desire to win at any cost is ... well ... no sir, I don't like it.
UPDATE
Gavin Sullivan has posted Terri's letter and has some comments addressed to the superdelegates:
(Gavin Sullivan)
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Stumble It!
Negative Bonoff
Ashwin Madia has responded with an email that I read this morning. As a delegate, I am committed and will continue to support the candidate who has strived to run a positive campaign, Ashwin Madia.
Terri Bonoff is continuing to look and sound like a very spoiled child who really does not understand why she is not getting her way. I cannot support that, and I hope the super-delegates are beginning to look at how this behavior will affect their own re-election campaigns this fall.
Their campaign funds and boots on the ground are watching, and the vast majority voted for Ashwin Madia in this representative process. Hope they are paying attention to the will of the people, and not the will of one very selfish candidate. Their own futures may depend on it.
How does Ashwin Madia respond?
How Ashwin Madia responds is the important point here. A sizeable chunk of voters trusted Republicans and now feel betrayed in so many ways. The important point will be how Ashwin Madia tells his story of transformation. If he tells a compelling enough story, then he will garner even more votes. While it is true that this story may not be the same personal story as Democratic delegates, these delegates do recognize a compelling story that brings over more independents and converted Republicans. This morning I was on a car ride with a young Democratic intern who has very Republican parents, his story was dramatic and heart rendering. Ashwin's story could be the story of the whole third congressional district. Terri Bonoff's challenge may be a blessing in disguise.
I'll be on it
Ashwin will be coming to my college Dem's meeting at St Thomas on the 10th and that is going to be my question, what made him change his political affiliation and what Republican positions does he still hold.
Ash's response
Good for you, Andrew. Ask Ashwin that question and be prepared for an answer that will blow you away. He has a very compelling story and he will make you feel empowered that everyone can grow and learn to look at this world from a progressive point of view. I've heard him speak on this and it truly is empowering and enlightening. I have a very Republican mother and she has (finally) at 75 years of age voted for a Democrat - Hillary Clinton - in her primary in another state. It was her first vote ever for a Democrat. I hold out hope that we, as Democrats, always welcome people to our party with open arms. It's not how long you've been here. It's why you came and what you plan to do about it. I think everyone needs to hear Ashwin's comments on this.
The Bonoff Letter
I read the letter. I see nothing at all wrong with it. Bonoff highlights real differences between her record and Madia's. These comments about the supposedly "disgraceful letter" are just Madia partisans being sanctimonious, at best, but also, it seems to me, insincere.
Bonoff Letter
Democrat in the District,
Did you possibly read the letter and have the truth next to it? That's why it's despicable. She won't answer questions about her past back at Tonka Toys etc yet expects us to believe that Ash Madia's writing from over a decade ago as an 18 year old college sophomore are reasons to disbelieve someone. It's not lies....it's distortion and out of context. Is that ethical to you? Not to me. I'm sick of the partisan crap from Bonoff.
Bonoff letter
Evey time I listen to Bonoff or read something from her campaign, all I hear and see are the words "I" and "me". I would respectfully like to know what Terri Bonoff has done for someone other than herself? What other campaigns has she volunteered on? Who else has benefitted frrom her talents? I don't want to hear about legislation she got to attatch her name to; I want to hear about some concrete time and effort she has given to candidates and causes other than herself.
There is so much trash talk about who is the better Democrat. Ashwin Madia has worked on other campaigns and championed democratic causes for people other than himself. What has Bonoff done for the party?
What has Bonoff done for the party?
I respect the courage and sacrifice it takes to run for office. Bonoff ran in a Republican district, and won. She inspired people in the western suburbs to become politically active and to begin to identify as Democrats with pride. She has some good accomplishments in the state senate.
Neither of the candidates has made a significant contribution to party building. Madia's volunteering on a few campaigns was not significant. Terri was known in Dem circles for not being supportive of other campaigns that couldn't help her in the election.
That Bonoff attacked Madia on changing from a Republican to a Democrat is completely unproductive as that is exactly the kind of voter we will need to win this election.
What it comes down to for me, first, is their experience and reasons for running. Bonoff is a self-described businesswoman and soccer mom. So am I. Fine. Her expertise seems to be on state issues, like education. She is shallow on the economy and foreign policy. Madia is the son of immigrants and a former U.S. Marine who served in Iraq. He has the life experience we need in congress right now, more than marketing Tonka Toys and driving kids to soccer games. He is much sharper on the issues that Congress faces.
My second concern is the ability to run an effective campaign. Madia has been laser-focused with message and organization. Bonoff has been all over the map with animated clay figures subcaucusing at a convention, promoting her son, sending lit with song lyrics and finally cheap and misleading attacks. That type of unfocused, reactive campaigning is not a recipe for success.
To show leadership, Bonoff needs to do these things:
1) Stop raising money - Madia is the presumptive nominee, and all the money she raises now only hurts Madia (and helps Paulsen).
2) Run a positive campaign through the endorsing convention, telling delegates why she should serve in Congress.
3) If she gets endorsed, she runs and resumes fundraising - Madia should endorse and support her.
4) If Madia gets endorsed, she endorses and supports Madia, and returns her focus to the senate seat, which we need and she won by a smaller margin last time.