MN-SEN: Franken, Coleman in statistical dead heat
A new poll indicates that Al Franken is in a statistical dead heat with Norm Coleman for the MN-SEN seat. The Rasmussen poll released today indicates Norm leads Al by 2 points, 47% - 45% with a MoE of 4%. After getting pummeled by the MN Republican Party, Norm and Norm's minions, Al is now back to tied with Norm.
Franken also receives a boost from the top-of-the-ticket—Barack Obama enjoys a double-digit lead over John McCain. However, just 70% of Obama voters say they'll vote for Franken. Eighty-four percent (84%) of McCain voters support the Republican incumbent.
(Rasmussen Reports)
Here's my analysis:
First of all, once Al becomes the DFL nominee he will get more like 90+% of support from DFLers. Its not surprising that 30% of Obama supporters don't support Al -- they're supporting Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. I believe that this will start to change weekend after next at the DFL State Convention.
Secondly, turnout is going to play a huge role in deciding this race. There are simply more Democrats in this state than Republicans. President Bush has been a fabulous recruiter for the Democratic Party. More and more MN Republicans are switching to the DFL or identifying as independents.
When you consider that we could have over 80% turnout and you can understand why Norm is laying on the Norm-speakTM so thick. If we establish a record for turnout, Obama won't just beat Grandpa McSame, he'll thrash him in MN. As Rasmussen correctly note, the down-ticket benefits will be for Al.
Finally, Norm has only polled above 50% once -- when the criticism of Al peaked. Even then he only pulled 51%. Any sitting Senator polling as low as Norm has been since last July, is vulnerable.
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Finally some good news!
Disclosure: I'm a pledged alternate for Franken in Rochester.
Good analysis, but I disagree that turnout is going to have a big impact on this particular senate race, assuming Al is the nominee. Al is more moderate on issues than Norm is. Independents make up nearly 40% of Minnesota's electorate. They carried "former DFLer Norm Coleman" to election in '02 by a sliver. They're going to break heavily for Al in this election - nobody believes that Norm is a moderate anymore. If JNP were the nominee, I think these independents would be harder for the DFL to capture, but then I would agree that Obama turnout would be decisive in JNPs favor.
This poll is bad news for Jack, as much of his hope to switch pledged delegates/alternates hangs on Franken's supposed electoral difficulty against Coleman. I wonder if any more polls tracking this race are due before the convention.
47% is still too high for my liking, especially considering reports about a possible strong IP candidate entering the race. But it is still early.
Fickle Support
I do not like banking on fickle support, remember Hatch. What this is saying is that one negative story a week before the election could wreck it all. "Moderate" does not really exist, how does one be moderate in torture, moderate in having another Iran war, moderate in switching to renewable fuel? Really one is or one is not. We are in a moderate Iraq war, see the trillion dollar cost and see what the world thinks of us. We have moderate health care that sometimes works, is anyone happy? We have moderate government regulation where sometimes our products are safe and our health is protected, is anyone happy? We have moderate regulation of mortgages where only some major problems were fixed and other problems roamed free, is anyone happy with that? I no longer want moderate in any way, I want real committed solutions with courage. No more sell out politicians to health care companies or coal companies. I want a senator that works for the people.
Franken-Hatch comparison?
Comparing Al Franken to Mike Hatch is a stretch. Hatch's biggest failure was he didn't run a grassroots campaign. Al on the other hand is running the exact kind of campaign that Amy Klobuchar ran. Al is 'banking' on having talked to and shaken hands with thousands upon thousands of Minnesotans.
You prefer stubborn extremism?
Moderate or Extreme, those are the choices. Pragmatic or ideologically pure. Get something done with compromise, or get nothing done at all.
I don't think Al is anything like Hatch. That right there sounds an awful lot like Ron Carey saying 'angry al'. I also think that Al's supporters are steadfast and that Jack has lost the nomination. His hope, like Hillary's was to change pledged delegates, delegates who made campaign promises of support for Al in order to be elected to the convention. His hope is that a calamity would befall Al, that this poll would have shown Al in the 30s or something equally discouraging, to help him pry these people from the oaths they took to fellow citizens.
Al is the only candidate who has ever been within 15 points of Norm in a major poll.
I agree that either you torture or you don't. I strongly disagree with your insinuation that Al is ok with torture, and I think you ought to take it back. Opposing torture is a moderate position. Al is a moderate on torture. Torturing in order to extract information is an extreme position. Not interrogating at all would be the correspondent extreme position. Which extreme position are you suggesting Jack supports?
One can be moderate on an Iran war by, for example, engaging the international community, imposing sanctions, supporting opposition groups financially, talking to Iran's leader. Al is a Moderate on Iran. Unilateral invasion without provocation or existing justification would be an extreme position. No war with Iran under any circumstances (including, for example, Iran engaging our troops already in the field, or offensive action by Iran against our allies) would also be an extreme position. Which extreme position are you suggesting Jack supports?
I cannot believe you call the Iraq war moderate. It was caused by extremism in the current administration. I think you mean that a gradual drawdown which doesn't endanger the troops in field, conducted under the normal command structure with the commander in chief issuing orders, which does not threaten the energy security of our country and our allies , which takes responsibility for the mess we made is a moderate position. I think you're right - and I think it's the position of the vast majority of Minnesotans. An extreme position would be to call immediate withdrawal regardless of consequences, just as the decision to invade regardless of consequences was extreme.
On healthcare, some people are happy with their coverage and the state of Healthcare in our country. Calling the systems we have in place now "moderate" is not helpful. The apt comparison is between improvement proposals. It would be moderate to call for incremental expansion of healthcare access, to provide federal funding to the states to find the best, most workable healthcare solution. It would be extreme to provide federal universal single payer healthcare. It is also impossible. No presidential candidate supports it. Obama has a moderate healthcare plan that conflicts with Jack's plan. No congressional candidate outside a major city could vote for it and beat the attacks about being a communist. National single-payer can't be achieved by a senate candidate and is therefore pandering. It wins strong support in the endorsement base, like Jack's war position. It doesn't win in the general election. Al's plan (50 laboratories) is complementary to Obama's and offers the best hope to Minnesotans for achieving single-payer system, albeit at the state level, during the next 6 years.
You don't want moderate regulation, you'd like, what, total regulation? I think in a lot of cases our Government protects us from ourselves in violation of our liberty. I think a lot of industries are too heavily regulated. There are some areas where more regulation is needed. That's a moderate position - appropriate and effective regulation.
Real committed solutions with courage are well and good. Workable solutions are better, though. Government is supposed to improve people's lives. I think it is the most powerful human invention aimed at this pursuit. It is not, however, capable of making the world perfect, and governments operate in the real world where southern states get votes, the executive branch sets policy objectives, and where a single senator can stop all business from going forward if an extreme view offends them too much.
Al Franken is going to be a Senator who delivers improvements to people lives. Moderate doesn't mean sellout. It means willing to take acceptable, workable solutions instead of refusing to compromise based on ideological preconditions. Whether that ideology is pacifism or projection of US military and economic might, we have had far too much obstinate leadership in this country. Sure, there are lines in the sand, we don't torture. And there are desires, like, hopefully no war with Iran will be necessary.
Labels
See you have just used the trap of labels. I have turned your labels around. Anything extremist is actually a workable practical policy and anything moderate by definition is a half and half policy, which is half workable and half not workable. Moderate, middle, centrist - all means a mix of policies, some that work and some don't. In fact, when a politician promises to vote moderate, what are they promising specifically? See you can't tell. So in my mind, a politician who promises moderate is promising to vote with the political wind or for special interests, because they have promised nothing to the people. So I always want the very best - the extreme best policies.
Yes, Al Franken has said that he believes in small strategic wars like Bosia. Iraq was billed as a small strategic war, fast, cheap and very effective - a moderate view of having a small strategic war. Peace is an extreme best workable solution. War is always a failure. Defense in war is the last resort of the failure of politicians.
No war with Iran is the extremely best solution! All other methods that you mentioned are peace methods, that I fully and completely endorse. Furthermore, some of the information that you are using to make your decisions is pure propaganda and lies, just like Iraq. So keep that in mind as you propose solutions.
Both Al and Norm are well known, and as you have pointed out, people are not likely to change their minds on who they know. That would be a "Hillary" (don't you love labels) request. However, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is not known quantity. So merely his introduction would give a boost, plus he does not have the high negatives nor the negative personal issues.
I can't follow your logic on torture. Interrogation and torture is not the same thing. Basically as way of getting information, torture fails. Whole books are written about that. That is why no torture is in our constitution. Last I checked Al is against torture for the record. The point being is that "no torture" is an extreme best workable stand.
"Moderate" is a label used for Republican Lite policies. It is one of the reasons that Democrats don't get votes, since they are not even perceived as even different from Republicans. Anytime you say moderate, you are conceding the Republican policies are somehow valid-good-acceptable when in fact those policies totally suck. We are the party of the people, we are the party of good government. Our values for the people, not the privileged few. It is time that we stand tall and proud for who we are. So yes everytime you use "moderate", you are somehow implying that Democratic values are only worth half having. I so very proud to be extremely Democratic for peace, justice, opportunity, fairness, equality and community!
Justin, got a few points/questions
----On healthcare, some people are happy with their coverage and the state of Healthcare in our country.
The people who are happy with their healthcare are either very lucky to still have good employer coverage or from the privileged class. For those lucky enough to have good employer coverage, it is only a matter of time before it hits them.
I work for Saint Paul Schools, and we have employee coverage, but if I wanted my kids to be covered it would cost an additional $12,000 out of pocket. 25% of my salary just so my kids could see a doctor of health partners chooosing.
Now, last year, the legislature passed a law to group teachers in with state workers for a larger bargaining unit for health care. Many affluent districts said, exactly as you have, that "We already have good coverage, we don't want to group with you to help you." The old we got ours mentality, and Pawlenty vetoed a chance for us to get decent health care costs.
Funny thing happened on the way to the most recent round of contract negotiations. Even those affluent districts started to get pinched. So, you can play the game of "I'm doing good, so let's not change too much", but the writing is on the wall, and eventually this health care crisis will hit ALL people and ALL companies except the extremely privileged. I mean, teachers are considered to have "good" benefits, and it costs a fourth of my salary!
Also, Obama is absolutely for universal coverage and I will quote from his Blueprint for Change, which can be found on his site:
Universal Coverage
Obama will sign a universal health care plan into law by the end of his first term
in office. His plan will provide affordable, quality health care coverage for every
American.
Page 10
What scares me somewhat about Obama's plan is the following citation:
Reduce Health Care Costs Obama’s plan will bring down the cost of health care and
reduce a typical family’s premiums by as much as
$2,500 per year.
Page 10 BluePrint for Change
This is less than McCain's lame $5000 tax credit would give us. I wish Obama would define what "affordable" is like the Minnesota group pushing this issue did. Anything, like affordable means premiums that are less than 10% of your salary.
Why is Universal Care immpossible? If every single industrialized nation in the entire world can do it, why can't we? I think the socialist/communist meme has lost its punch. Every country in the world but us cannot be communist.
Now, on to my actual question: I am a Franken delegate, and plan on voting for him first ballot, but am persuadable on successive ballots. I have talked with Mr. Franken, seen him talk, heard him talk, and what worries me most is the intangibles. He does not seem good on the stump. I am afraid he will be out charisma-ed by Holloywood Norm. Mr. Franken is great intellectually, but he does not really seem to have that pull on an emotional or visceral level. Like it or not, many people vote on who they would be most comfortable "having a beer with".
So what say you about the charisma problem?
Thanks,
Alec
Justice will only exist where those not affected by injustice are filled with the same amount of indignaation as those offended.
Moderate Iran Policy...
You probably saw this commentary today on moderate Iran policy vs. an extreme one. Outstanding.
Exactly
Here is "fear, fear, fear" talk that will get us into another war = a third war. Why couldn't this same "fear, fear, fear" also work against China or North Korea. And if we invade Iran, we will be totally safe from Pakistan with nuclear capability, oops they have nuclear capabilities and Al Queda. So really on the same basis lets invade Pakistan. Basically the only way we are going to be safe is if we control and dominate the whole world. How very moderate!
A Lieutenant General...
...is a three-star general.
And you don't earn three stars by bein' what the 'Cons like to refer to as a "liberal/leftist/socialist FRENCH FRY eatin' APPEASER!!!"
So, when LtGen William Odom speaks, remember that he's speaking through a warrior's perspective.
Some Hatch comparisons work
Franken is certainly not a clone of Mike Hatch, but a couple of things are dangerously similar.
First, there is the similar danger of a meltdown. We all remember that Hatch had a decent chance until that unfortunate name-calling incident with the reporter.
Think about Franken a bit. His early speeches were mind-numbing boring. It just seemed like he himself wasn't actually interested in what he was saying. Play back some of those tapes and you will see that not only JNP shines brilliantly in comparison, but Ciresi does too. Then notice how Franken finally came up with a more animated 3-minute speech that said "You know me!' but his people kept shutting off every attempt at longer speeches at the Congressional District conventions. Notice how he wouldn't have any reporters ride along with him for longer interviews, and how he left gatherings in a hurry while the questions were still hanging in the air. Notice how Franken said not one word, not even a joke, about the stupid Republican smears at the CD2, CD8 and CD7 conventions, even though every single delegate at the conventions had been reading the same neocon swiftboating.
This is not the witty and memorable and sometimes charming Franken that we might have expected. This is the Franken who is very tightly scripted and doesn't really enjoy it that much. This is the Franken who seems to be in some danger of a Hatch-style meltdown, and whose staffers are doing everything they possibly can to avoid having that happen before the convention next week.
Only ask yourself this question: Could he possibly make it until November, if he manages to get endorsed next week? In my opinion, not very likely.
The second way that Franken's and Hatch's campaigns are similar is in the way the supposed strength is being framed. For months and months and months, Franken's campaign has sold Franken as the inevitable DFL nominee. For all that time, he was being marketed as the most electable candidate. Because he had the most money. Because he had a high name-recognition and because he was a celebrity. Because the big-wig superdelegates and the big-wig union leaders (although not the rank and file, in my experience) said so.
Do you remember the painful arm-twisting for Hatch that several unions, especially the Carpenters, were doing on the floor in Rochester in 2006? I do. It still hurts.
But what makes Franken inevitable? What gives millions of out-of-state contributions some advantage with the electorate? Why do people go along with this tragic band-wagon effect? Even yesterday's polls, didn't include Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, on the completely false presumption that there isn't really a contest for the DFL endorsement.
When you get underneath all this, this sort of pressure is merely a kind of bullying. It doesn't produce a better senator to represent us. It doesn't even produce a candidate that can win against Coleman.
Listen, I like Franken. I think he is a brilliant satirist. And I think he is absolutely miserable with the constraints he has been having with this misguided run for the U.S. Senate. I would be happy to seem him get back to his strengths and start ripping Norm Coleman to pieces. And I think we would all be happier if we just put a bit of this money into Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer's campaign and didn't have to put up with Norm Coleman for another 6 years.
Following their hearts...
Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is spearheading an amazing grassroots campaign, fueled by Minnesota money and the enthusiasm of hard-working volunteers all around the state. Jack's support grows every day, because of his grasp of the issues, his courage to talk about the root causes of the problems we face in this country, and his hopeful vision to lead us forward.
Talk of "campaign promises of support" and "oaths to fellow citizens" are a misleading way to characterize the responsibilities of the delegates and alternates to the State Convention. The responsiblity of the delegates is to educate themselves on the candidates, take advantage of the access they are afforded by being delegates, and then vote for the person they feel would make the best United States Senator. To claim people have no choice in the decision they make once they've stood under a cardboard sign that says Franken is to short-circuit the entire process. What of the multitude of delegates who didn't know Jack when they took that "oath"? Or those who, upon closer examination, feel Jack is the best candidate to defeat Norm Coleman? Aren't people allowed to change their mind, based on new information, or choices by the candidate they pledged to support that go against their own personal values and sensibilities? Is a promise to Al more important than making the right choice for the DFL party as a whole? Jack doesn't need to "pry" delegates from Al, they are following their hearts and voting in the best interest of all Minnesotans.
Jack has not lost this nomination, quite the opposite is true. What most people dismissed as impossible becomes more possible every day. It's going to be fun to send another Professor to Washington!
I am one of those
I am hoping to learn a lot next Friday. We'll see.
Justice will only exist where those not affected by injustice are filled with the same amount of indignaation as those offended.
We all win...
when people make the choice they believe is the best for all Minnesotans. Thanks Alec, for putting careful thought into the important decision you have to make on Saturday, June 7th. And ultimately, we all want the same thing, to defeat Norm Coleman. We do that by having a general election based on the issues we as Democrats want to see in the forefront, universal health care, a responsible end to the war in Iraq, an energy policy that seriously addresses global warming. As this endorsement race has shown, Jack is all about the issues. He won't be sidelined by personal smears, attempts to turn the focus from Norm's abysmal record, or any of the other multitude of futile attempts that will be made to make this race about things other than the fact that Norm is not representing the people of Minnesota. Through no fault of his own, this kind of race will be virtually impossible if we endorse Al Franken.