Obama, Clinton campaigns organize in northern Minnesota
I have a cold and lost my voice yesterday, so I have to watch the political coverage today in relative silence. My particular throat issues prevent me from saying the words "yeah," and "uh-huh" without pain. I had never realized how important those words were in my vocabulary, especially at home.
Hillary Clinton just won Nevada by a little over five points. That makes South Carolina must-win for my guy Obama going into Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. But what does all that mean to Minnesotans?
The race for Minnesota's Feb. 5 caucuses has finally reached northern Minnesota with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama forming organizations in Duluth and on the Iron Range. Volunteer and precinct captain meetings for both candidates have begun in Hibbing, the Range's largest and most central city. Both campaigns have deployed field organizers here with Iowa experience (though Clinton's is an ex-Dodd operative).
What has been interesting for me is trying to figure out how this strong DFL area will break for the presidential race. If John Edwards was a front runner he'd probably be the guy to beat (Rangers like the old time Democrats). But he isn't and I wonder where everyone will go. I expect that most of the Iron Range legislative delegation will probably stick with Edwards, though I know Rep. Tom Anzelc of rural Bovey will soon endorse Barack Obama. I don't know of any legislators endorsing Clinton but she'll have strong support from many people I know in the DFL party organization, which is valuable.
If Obama wins South Carolina and maintains the national tie in the polls, then I'd say Minnesota is a close state but that the Iron Range is a complete toss up. A visit to northern Minnesota by Obama, Clinton or Edwards might deliver a treasure trove of Democratic delegates to that candidate. (hint-hint). I know the rest of the state doesn't always pay much attention to the Iron Range but this area is a bellweather for any successful Democratic campaign in Minnesota.
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Hillary and Obama campaigns are late in appearing in the North
...really late!
Edwards and Kucinich will do well on the range, and Hillary and Kucinich will do well in Indian Country.
The Obama and Clinton investments in the VAN, and Twin Cities-based phone banking operations will help, but Obama and Clinton campaigns were not really present at DFL functions in the 7th and 8th this year...
The VAN
The VAN is not a phone banking operation, its the DFL's database. The VAN is run by the MN DFL and while Obama and Clinton might have given money to the party, they haven't exactly "invested" in the VAN.
Obama/ Clinton VAN access was a multistate purchase via the DNC
Obama/ Clinton VAN access was a multistate purchase via the DNC and it was a significant investment of campaign resources in data and data management, and drives some phone banks. Phone banking from remote locations in the Twin Cities is not the same as organizing or even being visible and present, outstate.
That being said cable news coverage heavily favors Clinton and Obama, an people in fairly remote areas in MN have cable more often now than in 2004.
The Range
I'm sure Brown will correct you on this but, Hibbing is not the heart of the Range, its the western center but, the Quad Cities(Virginia, Mt Iron, Eveleth and Gilbert) with Virginia being the biggest is the heart of the population and geography.
At this point Obama is leading in the delegate count, he actually earned more in Nevada and New Hampshire though Hillary got the popular vote.
The Clintons ability to utilize dirty tricks will hurt them by the time they get here. Their constant complaining about caucuses being unfair and against them won't play well here. Their dropping in two dozen people who are not from here, not familiar with our state, not familiar or respectful of the caucus is already hurting them. Obama was smart in hiring people who are tested organizers with community connections here. They did this across our state (and in CA, NY, SC and MO as far as I know). They did this early. Clinton is playing catch up.
Finally, MN DFLers are sick of status quo establishment candidates.
Obama should do well here. Bill Clinton will come up with an excuse of why it won't matter or why it was unfair.
Range
OK Brown I see you wrote the post I thought Eric wrote. You must be from somewhere between Cherry and Keewatin.
The true center
Oh dear. It appears we'll have to air some of the Range's parochial dirty laundry. There is indeed a strong base of population on the eastern Iron Range in the quad cities, but there is another base in Hibbing and another yet in Bovey/Coleraine/Nashwauk. I live on the western Iron Range -- in Itasca county. Hibbing is the central Range and Virginia/E-G/Biwabik/Hoyt Lakes is the east Range. That's just geography.
Thus, I conclude, that Hibbing is the Range's center, though that was not intended to diminish the importance of either the western or eastern Iron Range. I work in Hibbing and used to live there so my perspective is often skewed by what I see every day. I was raised in Cherry and my dad's family is east Range to the core. There's really no reason we can't all get along. :-)
Yes, these campaigns are late -- in my opinion -- but in the big picture I'm not surprised. No one has had to run a national primary before and our caucus was moved up to a historically early date.
I hope the prediction that Obama wins up here is correct (I'm an Obama backer) but I have to see a lot more evidence before I get cocky about it. I think it's more likely that Minnesota, along with most of the state's on Feb. 5, split up their delegates and yield a murky national result.
MinnesotaBrown is Aaron J. Brown, a writer, college instructor and political organizer from northern Minnesota's Iron Range. Read more at www.minnesotabrown.blogspot.com.
Kucinich
When Kucinich does "well" does that just mean he breaks 1 percent?
Actually, Minnesota is a
Actually, Minnesota is a strange state that way. Kucinich will probably get 5-10 percent. Remember how Alan Keyes beat McCain in 2000 on the Republican side. The fringe elements are strong here on both sides. I could see my precinct in the rural Iron Range going for Kucinich just as easily as for any of the big three.
MinnesotaBrown is Aaron J. Brown, a writer, college instructor and political organizer from northern Minnesota's Iron Range. Read more at www.minnesotabrown.blogspot.com.
Matt Entenza
MB:
Matt Entenza is cranking up his rehabilitation.
Where does he go? Does his black mark from the AG run really hurt him? Personally likable, but the folks that want him to go away really are serious in trying to submarine the guy.
A lot of face time for Matt in the coming month including NE MN
listening sessions
Entenza
The real problem with Entenza is the source of his millions. His wife was an executive with United Health Care and got the same kind of ridiculous compensation that the embattled William McGuire did. Its basically blood money - profits derived by screwing people out of medical treatment.
You know, I'm not as close
You know, I'm not as close to the whole Entenza thing. I don't know that he or his botched AG run even register on the radar of most folks up north, even the political ones. About the only people who might have an opinion are those who have had business with the legislature or who actually have served with Matt Entenza. Where does he go next? Not sure. But whatever it is he would need some kind of spark, a reason to come back from the dead. I do know that MN 20/20 is putting out some thought-provoking material (I've quoted at least one item in my newspaper column) and if he's responsible for it I'd be interested to see what else he would bring to the table.
But then again, people around here really hate insurance companies. That's strike one and two in just about every corner of the state.
MinnesotaBrown is Aaron J. Brown, a writer, college instructor and political organizer from northern Minnesota's Iron Range. Read more at www.minnesotabrown.blogspot.com.
Fishing
I think that Entenza question was a probably a drive by fishing expedition by a Republican blogger.
?
Yeah, I was wondering about that. It's a good thing I know who Matt Entenza is because 99.9 percent of the people north of Duluth don't give a crap.
MinnesotaBrown is Aaron J. Brown, a writer, college instructor and political organizer from northern Minnesota's Iron Range. Read more at www.minnesotabrown.blogspot.com.
Perhaps a little testing
Perhaps a little testing of the water by the folks at Mn2020: Entenza's "non partisan" launchpad
Minnesotans are independent thinkers
Kucinich will do well in Minnesota because he is an authentic populist, and Minnesotans choose who they think is right, not necessarily what the beltway Washington insiders tell them to do. It is to Minnesota's credit that they would vote their conscience and caucus for the candidate who represents them on the issues. That is what a caucus is for, to vote for who you really want before the national party nominates a candidate to run in the general election. Furthermore, in 2004, Kucinich carried my precinct, and as far as I know the city of minneapolis. I expect him to get votes all over the state this time as well because many Minnesotans are interested in principled candidates rather than bowing to the corrupt front-runners.
Range importance
How much influence does northeast Minnesota have? In the future: Not much
IMHO
More people vote in Bloomington Apple Valley Burnsville and Eagan than Duluth and the Range.
The seniority of the range delagation in the state legislature will drop big time when the current incumbents decide to hang it up.
So if you want to be relevant into the next decade; keep your reps in there until they
can't walk up the steps of the Capitol.