The Senate Race Will Be Decided by Labor Day

....will win the senate seat.

In 2002, Pres. Bush was at his height of popularity, the drumbeats for war in Iraq were beating and many were in favor of it. It was the first post-9/11 election. It was a VERY FAVORABLE time to be a Republican.

Despite all of this, Norm Coleman was struggling against Paul Wellstone, and most polls at the end of October had Wellstone fending off Coleman's challenge. It took a tragic accident and a debacle at the memorial service for Coleman to squeak out a narrow victory under the BEST OF CIRCUMSTANCES FOR A REPUBLICAN.

2008 is much, much different. These are not good times for Republicans, especially in the state of MN. Given the fact that this is a presidential election year and the Democrats are largely motivated and enthusiastic while the Republicans are widely discouraged, that alone should benefit downticket DFLers. Add to that the HISTORIC UNPOPULARITY of the current Adminstration and its policies, it can't do anything but hurt someone running who happens to be a staunch supporter of said administration.

2008 is a BAD time to be a Republican in Minnesota.

Which is why I'm still hoping that the two candidates "defeated" in the June convention carry their campaigns on to the primary. I made it as far as the SD convention this weekend and am no longer willing to give diehard DFLer's the courtesy of respecting their bizarre notions regarding their endorsement process. It is profoundly anti-democratic (small d), and very republican (small r). The notion that the 1,400 in Rochester have the right to speak for millions of Minnesota Democrats is absurd. The DFL is, and apparently has been for quite some time, a self-renewing group of hard core activists who have jiggered and re-jiggered the rules over the years to where it would be all but impossible for a non-endorsement to take place. That alone invalidates their endorsement process.

If Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale and Gene McCarthy were all running this year, these 1,400 delegates would DEMAND their right to pick the nominee. Nevermind that not one person in the hall would have the stature of any of these three legendary Democrats, the DFL elites would insist on their right to make that choice, a choice that belongs to the primary voters and not the party activists.

I have never met a DFLer who was born out of state and active in politics before moving here who agrees with this system. No other state endorses and then holds a primary, nearly all hold primaries and then have conventions to ratify the decision made by the voters.

Move the MN primary to early June and then ratify the voters' choice. That's democracy with a small d.

View #3:

Al Franken is an angry guy who uses bad language and makes fun of people. He is arrogant and distant and he doesn’t listen to people. He calls people names and talks about sexual positions in public. He has no firm views on the issues, is a champion flip-flopper on the war who isn't much more progressive than Norm Coleman, just a rude and abrasive Bush-basher.

Norm Coleman, however, is always smiling, never calls people names, has never been involved in a sex scandal. He is a nice, gentlemanly moderate Republican whose positions have evolved over the years and who is fairly good on the environment and can be trusted to look out for Minnesota's best interests, no matter which party the next president belongs to.

This is all BS, of course. Norm Coleman certainly IS a weasel and an opportunist and Norm Coleman cannot be trusted on anything at all. The only reason he hasn't been involved in a scandal is that the people who know about the little problems have themselves been too vulnerable to counter-attacks.

My point is this: Al Franken may be the candidate with the most name recognition, but he is the Democrat most vulnerable to Republican attacks and least able to mobilize the Democratic base. Al Franken may indeed get the endorsement in June, but he is the weakest of the three against Norm Coleman. If Al Franken gets the DFL nomination, Al Franken is the issue and Norm Coleman gets a free ride.

If Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is the nominee, then Coleman/Rove/the Swiftboaters can only attack Jack on the issues. That is a conversation I would LOVE to have with Republicans. On the issues, Norm loses: lousy war, sagging economy, falling bridges, corrupt government programs, lost civil liberties, crappy schools, elusive healthcare and all.

(Full disclosure: I support Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer and am a frequent volunteer [not paid staff] for Jack’s campaign. I should also add that Jack is a really nice guy, whereas I am not quite as nice or as positive as Jack, thus this unvarnished opinion. That said, I still think every word I said above is true.)

Truly, I have no desire in the world to help Norm Coleman win the election. I just think it is only fair to warn folks, and it truly seems to me that nominating Al Franken is the single most efficient thing that we Democrats could do to have Norm Coleman as Senator until 2014. Uggg!

Mike Ciresi just dropped out.

I guess I can understand. He gave the best speech I have heard from him in Pope County yesterday. He was there with his wife, son Dominic and about 10 staffers. In the end, however, he only got a half-delegate out of 6 half-delegates and 2 half-alternates out of 6.

So now it is a new game completely. Let's see what happens.

I predict that the Franken triumphalists will again be predicting a Franken endorsement, nomination, win. I still think it's too soon. Ciresi didn't endorse anyone else, but I predict that most of his supporters will end up behind Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer.

This a war on framing, where there is no such thing a little bit pregnant, moderately pregnant, centrist pregnant or middle of the road pregnant. Neither can we compromise on torture saying Monday and Tuesday is ok for torture, but not the rest of the week. Or that we can torture people as long we don't do in the US, or that we have some other country do the torture for us. How can waterboarding be not torture now when it was torture 30 years ago. A little bit of concession is conceding the whole argument. We shouldn't even use the word "nutjob", basically Franken needs to learn how to speak eloquently on values and principles - like peace, like green jobs, like single payer, like single payer health care, like civil rights, like no torture, like good government. Jokes are good for attention, however one has move people based on values. Actually we want a senator we can count on to represent our values. Norm Coleman votes and actions do not match what he says, he is the say anything today guy. We need a Democratic senator that stands for the important values. Reject the Republican framing. Standing up for values is not "nutcase", "nutcase" is voting for a senator who does vote what he says.

Two years we tried selling peace without a candidate, people were confused at best. We are at a time where need to convert our diplomacy to peace diplomacy not a long dragged out war while certain rich people are still trying to steal Iraq oil. Our American industry is still not converting to green efficient industries. Our American auto industry has claimed it can't get 30 MPG when 70 MPG is being sold by non-American manufacturers. And all of these issues we are running out of catch up time. We want a green sustainable economy before we tank, it looks like we are going to tank first. We are not just trying to elect candidate, we are trying to change voters, and change the thinking of our whole state. JNP is the advocate for change that we need.

if I were you, rjm, when you say that Al is going to win the endorsement. If anybody can get the public on their side, it's Jack, with his brilliantly clear explanations of where we are and what we need to do to get somewhere different. Al may have some personality appeal, and he started in the race much earlier, and he's run a very effective campaign, but if Jack had started campaigning as early as Al, do you still think Al would be so far ahead? I really hope the dfl gives the state of Minnesota the chance to see Jack explain the issues and his solutions. And I think he would stand head and shoulders above Norm in a debate.

In a previous post, I believe it was you who made a comment about Jack to the effect that he was too radical for the general public. I asked you to explain which of Jack's proposals specifically would be offensive to the public. I think I posted my comment late, and you never responded, but I still am curious...if you could explain to me exactly what it is about Jack you think people would have trouble with, I would appreciate it.

(full disclosure: I am a fervent supporter/volunteer for Jack)

Thanks
Lorna

Quite frankly (frankenly) I think the single biggest obstacle to Jack's campaign, is not that he's too progressive, or that he won't be able to hold his own against Norm Coleman, but that there are so many folks in the party who "think" he doesn't have as good a chance against Coleman. This both puzzles and greatly frustrates me.

RJ, you question Jack's ability to carry the campaign to the suburbs and outstate. There are people who see the world clearly everywhere in the state, and those are the people who have flocked with great enthusiasm to Jack's campaign all over the state. I live in central MN, my partner, another passionate Jack supporter and volunteer, lives in Bemidji. Jack has been to Bemidji twice. Good grief. Give Jack a little credit. He started in the race in October. Look at what Jack has been able to accomplish in the 5 short months since then, and on a tiny budget! And in the face of all the cynical self-fulfilling-prophesy mongers like yourself.

It seems to me that Jack is a superb campaigner, because he is able to frame the issues in such an understandable and courageous way, so that people not only understand how screwed up things have gotten, but that there are positive, hopeful, really sensible things that we can do about it! Like stop spending 19 times more on researching new weapons systems than on alternative energy. For goodness sakes.

The person matters because some people have a much better grasp of the issues and are much more skilled at presenting them in a way that people can understand. Why would Jack get painted into a corner, when he has reality on his side, and is able to describe it to people so that they can see it too?

I also disagree strongly that the only real difference between Jack and Al is in their health care plan and in their position on nuclear energy. Those are merely two clear examples of the difference in judgment between the two, but that difference in judgment affects a lot more issues than that, and I would like to point some more differences out, but not right now. I have to go make some more phone calls for Jack.

Thanks for the dialog. I really am interested in hearing what you think.

Lorna

Considering there are people calling each other "monster" this election cycle, I thought your tone was passionate, but hardly strident. You expressed "genuine curiosity," which is more than most of us do.

Thanks for keeping the dialog going, moving forward---RJ

"People who love good government and good sausage probably shouldn't see what goes into the making of either one." ---Otto vonBismarck