KSTP Push Polling By AAPOR Standards

KSTP is clearly doing a persuasion against Senate Candidate Al Franken in their latest poll and in the reporting of that poll! Of course, the poll writer, Rob Daves defends:

Minneapolis-based polling expert Rob Daves said this morning that the "push poll" label was way over the top. A push poll is a serious abuse, but the SUSA poll has none of the key earmarks

Daves, who was the longtime director of the Strib's Minnesota Poll, is also the past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and now runs Daves and Associates Research.
(Eric Black at MinnPost )

So let use those same American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) standards to show how this poll ready does have those "key earmarks"!

Before we start lets just remind everyone of the two questions KSTP asked in the push poll.

Al Franken the DFL candidate for U.S. Senate said he will pay about $70,000 in back income taxes to 17 states for incorrectly filing his tax returns over a five-year period. He also paid a fine to the state of New York for not paying for workers compensation insurance for workers he employed there. Knowing this, would you be more likely to vote for Al Franken for U.S. Senate? Less likely? Or would it not make a difference?

Do you think Al Franken should remain in the race for US Senate? Or do you think Franken should withdraw from the race?
(SurveyUSA)

First and foremost, this poll cannot be considered under "message testing". A news organization would be totally illegitmate in doing "message testing" poll. So this poll should be an information gathering poll. If it looks like more persuasion is happening than information gathering, then clearly it is a push poll. And according to AAPOR

A “Push Poll” is not a Legitimate Poll

A so-called "push poll" is an insidious form of negative campaigning, disguised as a political poll. “Push polls” are not surveys at all, but rather unethical political telemarketing -- telephone calls disguised as research that aim to persuade large numbers of voters and affect election outcomes, rather than measure opinions. This misuse of the survey method exploits the trust people have in research organizations and violates the AAPOR Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.
(American Association for Public Opinion Research


1) Focus: Does the survey ask only a few questions or does the survey explore the whole area of the topic?

One or only a few questions are asked, all about a single candidate or a single issue.
(American Association for Public Opinion Research

This survey asked only four questions. Only one (two part) question was on Al Franken and that same question was the only question on the senate race. No positive questions were asked about Al Franken. The question was also first, which is suspicious because first and last are most likely to be remembered.

Conclusion: Yes, on meeting the AAPOR focus standard for push polling!

2) Persuasion: Does the survey tend to persuade or change the opinions of audience, positively or negatively?

The questions are uniformly strongly negative (or sometimes uniformly positive) descriptions of the candidate or issue.
(American Association for Public Opinion Research

Instead of merely asking a question, a number of "facts" are stated up front. The survey even says the survey was done in the "voice of a professional announcer". Note the "facts" are strongly framed in "not paying taxes" instead of "paying taxes in the wrong state" or "hiring an accountant who made a mistake". The reason I say "not paying taxes" is because the amount $70,000 is mentioned whereas the refund of paying the wrong state is not mentioned, strongly implying unpaid taxes. This is very clearly framed negative. If we asked a poll based on this statement do you believe

a) Franken tried to not pay his fair share of taxes,
b) Franken made a tax mistake ,
c) Franken hired the wrong accountant,

everyone would pick "a". Here is the push, here is the persuasion, And it is very negative.

The clear intent of negative persuasion is most clearly displayed by the next part of the question: "Do you think Al Franken should remain in the race for US Senate? Or do you think Franken should withdraw from the race?" Where else have you seen any kind of repercussions, due to tax mistakes? Has a corporate CEO ever been asked to resign? Has the Republican party been asked to disband, due to tax problems? In contrast, the second question is about Tim Pawlenty's veto of the central corridor, which is clearly a topic of grave concern, a public responsibility that has huge negative financial costs for the state. So in equal fairness, did the survey ask, "Do you think Governor Tim Pawlenty should remain as governor? Or do you think Pawlenty should resign? " If the questions had been clearly parallel, then the question would be fair. As it was done, there is a very clear suggestion that Franken is NOT a worthy politician while Pawlenty is a worthy politician. Since Pawlenty is in charge of bridge and road maintenance where neglect has cost lives, there is clearly strong Republican bias here, where standards are applied to Democrats and Republicans are always given a free pass.

For a fair question, the question should be able to be asked for any candidate, so try the test of substituting Norm Coleman's name in the statement:

Norm Coleman the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate said he will pay about $70,000 in back income taxes to 17 states for incorrectly filing his tax returns over a five-year period. He also paid a fine to the state of New York for not paying for workers compensation insurance for workers he employed there. Knowing this, would you be more likely to vote for Norm Coleman for U.S. Senate? Less likely? Or would it not make a difference?

Do you think Norm Coleman should remain in the race for US Senate? Or do you think Coleman should withdraw from the race?

Obviously, this was not a question that could be asked of any candidate. Lets explore what the same style of question would look like for other subjects. Obviously if this question is fair, then the subject matter would not matter. To be truly an effective push poll, the news item should have some vague resemblance to a news story that the listener has heard like:

Norm Coleman the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate has publically reprimanded civil servants taking expensive trips on the tax payers' expense. Republican Senator Norm Coleman takes more privately funded trips paid for by lobbyists than anyone but Sen. Joe Biden. 46 trips taken for $94,847 and 120 approved for $229,815. Knowing this, would you be more likely to vote for Norm Coleman for U.S. Senate? Less likely? Or would it not make a difference?

Do you think Norm Coleman should remain in the race for US Senate? Or do you think Coleman should withdraw from the race?


Let's try the question on Governor Pawlenty:

Governor Pawlenty deliberately vetoed transportation bills that increased funding for bridge and road maintenance, even after the 35W bridge collapse. The vetoes were done while Governor Pawlenty's administration had pictures showing the gusset plates buckling on the 35W bridge and while Governor Pawlenty's administration knew the bridge was rated "structurally deficient". Knowing this, would you be more likely to re-elect Tim Pawlenty for Minnnesota Governor? Less likely? Or would it not make a difference?

Do you think Governor Pawlenty should stay in office? Or do you think Governor Pawlenty should resign from office?

Very obviously, the intent here was not to gather information, rather the intent was to sell an idea.

Conclusion: Yes, on meeting the AAPOR persuasion standard for push polling!

3) Is the intent and/or the organization paying for the poll hidden?

The organization conducting the calls is not named, or a phony name is used.
(American Association for Public Opinion Research

Survey USA did identify itself as doing the poll, however that does not identify KSTP, nor anything about KSTP ownership and the political positioning of KSTP ownership. Even I as I write this article, you know that I am supporter of Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. Do we know where KSTP ownership stands?

Conclusion: Yes, on meeting the AAPOR lack of identification standard for push polling!

So using American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) stated three standards, I find that KSTP did a push poll. Basically, I think we should file a complaint that KSTP is directly campaigning for a candidate. At the very least, KSTP should apologize and make restitution. If none of this happens, know that every KSTP incident of reporting is probably incomplete and biased.

KSTP: Most Blatantly Right-Wing of the 3 Major Metro Stations

KSTP showed their true colors when they aired "The Path to 9/11," a right-wing propaga piece designed to influence the 2006 elections.

It doesn't surprise me that they're doing a push poll or that they're reporting the results in an irresponsible way.

But I'll have to take your word for it. Haven't watched KSTP in over 18 months and never will again.

Excellent work. It is very

Excellent work.

It is very easy to file a complaint with the FCC.

Got to: https://esupport.fcc.gov/sform2000/formF!input.action

Thanks

Acknowledgment & Fax Cover sheet to submit additional information.
Filing for: Grace has been received by FCC. Thanks for your information. When inquiring about your complaint, be sure to reference this number: 08-C00018666 and, be sure to mention that you filed this complaint over the internet.

Use this page as a Fax Cover Sheet when faxing additional details to the FCC.

Fax Number (866) 418-0232
Date: 05/05/2008
To: Federal Communications Commission
From: Grace Kelly
Total Number of Pages: __________
Subject: 08-C00018666 (Form2000 Filed Via The Internet)

KSTP

File the report. It's definitely worth it. I knew that KSTP was Republican owned and loyal when they hired Cyndi Brucato back. She's a former Republican operative. Also, Tom Hauser isn't exactly non-biased......their hiring proves their bias.

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