Strib's latest poll: Franken stagnates, Nelson-Pallmeyer grows, Ciresi back in??!?
Submitted by lams712 on May 19, 2008 - 3:23pm.
In this morning's edition of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Minnesotans read about how mediocre, Bush-supporting, empty-suit, incumbent Republican senator Norm Coleman is still beating DFL frontrunner Al Franken in the latest poll.
Now pundits may dismiss this latest example of Franken's losing to Coleman with a grain of salt, saying that Franken's latest tax-related woes have caused this latest dip. The problem with that is the fact that Franken has been losing to Coleman for a while (50%-43% to Coleman a month ago & 48%-46% in March). I guess that one thing that can be said is that despite Franken's latest problems, he hasn't gotten any worse.
This latest poll and the Star Tribune article that is reporting it raises several issues. First and foremost is the (I believe to be completely FALSE) perception that Franken is the most "electable" candidate. I personally love and respect Al Franken and I think that much of the negativity directed at him is unfair, but he of the DEEP pockets, HIGH name recognition, "oodles" of DFL ESTABLISHMENT support, and national celebrity status should NOT BE LOSING to a sleazeball like Norm Coleman. I find Franken's complete STAGNATION to be very troubling to say the least.
The second issue brought up in the Strib's polling is the fact that Franken's opponent for the DFL nomination, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, has continued to enjoy steady growth in the polling as he becomes more and more known to the electorate (26% in Mar., 31% in Apr. and 38% today). Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is a true progressive populist from the same mold as the late, great Paul Wellstone. His impressive grassroots effort has won more and more converts along the way and he doesn't have ANY of the baggage that Al Franken has. I have advocated a re-examination of this race here, and given the fact that Franken continues to stagnate even with EVERY imaginable advantage while Nelson-Pallmeyer keeps growing, I will continue to hammer that point home.
One of the most interesting things from the article is the fact that erstwhile candidate, Mike Ciresi, who dropped out last March is quoted as saying that he will watch this race with "intense interest", even though for the time being he does not intend to re-enter the race. What makes Ciresi so "intense"? The fact that he runs ONLY one point less than Franken in a head-to-head against Coleman. Ciresi hasn't been in the race for two months and Franken is ONLY ONE POINT better?
The DFL nominating convention is only two and a half weeks away. Franken and Pallmeyer have both pledged to abide by the decision of the convention. Franken currently has a delegate lead and may even have enough to get the endorsement on the first ballot (60% of the delegates is required to get the endorsement). Franken's most compelling argument in his favor was that he was supposed to be the "ELECTABLE" one. There may be many great reasons to support Al Franken, unfortunately, the evidence suggests "electability" is NOT one of them.
(cross posted at DailyKos)
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What amazes me...
is that Nelson-Pallmeyer is polling in the high 30's, with a name recognition in the teens! Dunno what that says exactly, except "insert any D I don't know here" = 35%+ versus Coleman. And I say that as a Jack N-P delegate - not as a slight. My feeling is that if he were to get the endorsement, those numbers would improve immediately as he got exposure. If Franken gets the endorsement, you can't expect a bump, since it seems that his postive/negative impression numbers are pretty well set already.
Norm v. Any DFLer
In a poll last November, Norm beat Jim Cohen 50% - 38%. Jack lost 53% - 34% last November. It doesn't exactly indicate that Jack is making any headway against Norm to me.
Wow. Well, if we use your logic at looking at polls over....
....6 months old, then what about the ones that originally had Franken running neck and neck or even winning vs.Coleman.
If we take JNP, or Ciresi, or any other candidate out of the equation and just look at Franken, these recent trends ARE NOT GOOD. Franken is being sold as the "electable" one (that is the CONSTANT mantra I get when talking to Franken delegates). I'm sorry that the evidence is not supporting that. Also unfortunate for Franken and his supporters is the fact that Franken is a known quantity who doesn't have room to move the numbers greatly.
That's fair, but..
my argument wasn't that JNP is making "headway" in the sense you mean it. The visibility and name recognition that would come with DFL endorsement would dramatically boost JNP's name recognition. I think he has a strong positive upside. I also think it does not bode well that Franken today is comparable to Jim Cohen last November.
Also, to be fair in the opposite direction...
I dunno what name recognition poll you are referencing in the original post, but only 15% had any impression of JNP in the Minnesota Poll, positive or negative. In other news, this means that 230% more people reported that they would vote for JNP vs. Coleman than people who knew who he was. Hmm.
If only delegates were polled
If only delegates were polled, all Jack's numbers would be much, much higher. Jack has had a chance to talk to quite a few delegates, to meet them at conventions, to give his stump speech and (sometimes) to do some nice question and answer sessions. When that happens, Jack gets converts. So many delegates now know Jack. They really like him. And, as the Franken myth of inevitability erodes, they plan on voting for Jack on the first ballot. This could be a very interesting convention in Rochester in 19 days.
The convention with 1400 delegates, however, is not the election. If Jack gets endorsed, he is going to have a huge bump in name-recognition. And my guess is that his contributions are going to skyrocket, since a lot of people will figure that they have been betting on the wrong horse. But Jack's campaign is going to need every penny in order to get Jack's name out there.
I have always said that Franken had challenges that money couldn't fix. But Jack has no single challenge that couldn't be overcome with money and the public exposure that it brings.
There is something about this while process that really irks me, though. First, Franken is considered inevitable because everybody knows who he is. Then Franken is considered unelectable because the corporate media decides to beat a right-wing blog's smear to death. Today the Strib even runs a poll on Ciresi, who got out in March (and who I seriously doubt would even consider getting back in). What's that about? Has the Strib simply decided that neither Franken and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer are sufficiently corporate to trust. If they think Ciresi would get back into this race after repeatedly declaring that he would never run against the endorsement, then I think the Strib seriously underestimates Ciresi's integrity.
We need to look at the process here, folks. This is a long interview for one of the most important jobs in the world. Why are we letting Avista decide when Franken is electable and when he isn't? Why are we letting these empty suits decide when Jack is newsworthy and when he isn't? For goodness sake, the Strib still doesn't have a reporter assigned to the senate race yet. So of course they don't know anything, so they can't tell us anything.
We need to figure out a better way of selecting our senators than letting the Strib get Michael Brodkorb select them for us.
SEX SELLS - Michael's of Hollywood
On Monday afternoon (5-19-2008)"the Republican Party of Minnesota (MN GOP) released a graphic column" of which Minnesota Democrats Exposed's (MDE) Michael B. Brodkord (MBB), writes [5-19] that "the material is shocking."
"The MN GOP...did provide it" [the column] "to reporters who asked for a copy."
MBB wrote that he contacted the Director of MN GOP Communications, Mark Drake, for his (MBB's) shocking, graphic, personal copy.
MBB has recently been listed as a "political blogger." This description is perhaps how he qualified to receive the column from Drake.
MBB has written to "Please check back" to MDE "for more information on this developing story."
MBB wrote "The material is shocking, but I will be posting excerpts..."
[Material for this post came from Minnesota Democrats Exposed, May 19, 2008.]
Jack is the right person for Minnesota
I'm glad to see Jack growing in the polls. I had Jack as a college professor twelve years ago. During his class, we had many conversations and I grew to respect him greatly. In the past, I have almost always voted for the Republication ticket (yes, Coleman too). That is changing this year.
Even though I don't agree with Jack on all his positions, but I will vote for him because I trust and respect him. He is a smart and good man and I hope he wins.