MN-05 Analysis

Keith Ellison won in Minnesota's Fifth Congressional District (MN-05) because he overwhelmingly won the city of Minneapolis. Fears about Keith needing a huge turnout in Minneapolis proved to be unfounded as the turnout in the suburbs was extremely underwhelming. Turnout was 21% in Minneapolis. This is bad, but Keith's victory does show that the progressive voter base in Minneapolis turned out to vote for one of their own. I don't have registered voter information for the suburban cities in MN-05 so I cannot calculate turnout there, but vote totals in the suburbs were swamped by Minneapolis votes indicating turnout had to be very low.

Keith won 118 precincts out of the 197 in Hennepin County. Keith won 116 precincts in the city and in 67 of them he had a majority victory (50+%). He won over 70% of votes cast in 24 precincts -- this indicates how overwhelmingly urban his victory was. Mike Erlandson won 45 precincts and Ember Reichgott Junge won 35. All of Ember's and two-thirds of Mike's precinct wins came in the suburbs. Keith only won 2 suburban precincts. Unfortunately, I don't have any information about the Anoka precincts in this race at this point, either.

Keith's strategy in the suburbs was to be competitive. To that end, phone banks called suburban voters, but the doorknocking was limited to Minneapolis. Specifically, the doorknocking targeted high minority Wards like 2, 3, 4, 5 & 8 while the high turnout Wards in the south, 11-13, were called. For you numbers junkies out there, I've attached my spreadsheet. Enjoy.

Keith garnered 21% of suburban votes cast. Mike won the suburbs of Hennepin County with almost 37%, closely trailed by Ember at almost 36%. Obviously, Plymouth doesn't factor into this (its in Anoka County) and Ember probably carried it, but Erlandson carried Fridley, another Anoka County city. I'm sure Keith didn't do well in either of these cities. I vaguely recall Keith pulling around 18% as the Fridley precincts were the first to report on the Secretary of State's website on Primary Night.

Getting back to Keith's GOTV efforts, I heard many anecdotal stories from people who were part of the GOTV machine and particularly the knock-n-drag effort about how they think they personally got 10 to 15 voters who might not have otherwise voted to the polls. Particularly on the northside where GOTV activities were coordinated out of the Capri Theater. Turnout was dramatically heavier up there. In the 2005 Primary, Wards 4 and 5 had 8% turnout compared to 17% and 18.5% respectively in this primary. Turnout doubled percentage-wise. All credit to the Ellison Campaign for this.

Whereas the 8th Ward (my turf) was only up 4% from 20% to 24%. The southernmost and highest turnout Wards, 11, 12 & 13, so healthy increases, but not as dramatic as up north. The 11th Ward increased from 14% to almost 23%. The 12th Ward increased from 14% to approaching 25%. The 13th Ward increased from 22% to 26%. Sheer number-wise, it looks like this (2005 primary vote totals followed by 2006)

Ward 1 - 2351 - 3551 +1200
Ward 2 - 2475 - 3742 +1267
Ward 3 - 1642 - 2427 +785
Ward 4 - 1352 - 2783 +1431
Ward 5 - 1053 - 2397 +1344
Ward 6 - 1543 - 2188 +645
Ward 7 - 3142 - 4717 +1575
Ward 8 - 3330 - 4020 +690
Ward 9 - 2319 - 3108 +789
Ward10 - 3128 - 3772 +644
Ward11 - 2867 - 4487 +1620
Ward12 - 3446 - 5025 +1579
Ward13 - 4910 - 5901+991

Top Ten Precincts:

1. 2-2 -- 40%
2. 2-10 - 38.5%
3. 7-2 -- 34.8%
4. 13-6 - 32.7%
5. 7-1 -- 32.6%
6. 7-4 -- 32.6%
7. 13-7 - 32.6%
8. 8-7 -- 32.3%
9. 2-1 -- 32%
10. 2-6 -- 30.7%

NOTE: I couldn't find registration numbers for this election, so I used the registration numbers from 2005 which shouldn't be too far off. Right? If anyone knows where to find the 2006 Primary registration numbers, please let me know either in the Comments or by contacting me ... I'll update my percentages.