State of the MN-03 race

Minnesota's third congressional seat (MN-03) election pits DFLer Ashwin Madia against Republican Erik Paulsen. David Dillon is the independent candidate who is more or less a Republican with a twist and will likely peel off some conservative voters from Paulsen. This race is one of the most closely watched in the country as moderate Republican Jim Ramstad is retiring and this district has been trending Democratic in recent years in local elections. It is an excellent opportunity for a Democratic pick-up and many signs are pointing to a Madia win.

Attorney and Iraq vet Ashwin Madia is charismatic, hard-working and direct. His opponent is the bland former Republican House Majority Leader who is running away from his record as a fast as he can. His lawn signs, literature and website make no mention of his party affiliation. His campaign platform amounts to lightweight bumper sticker blurbs ... cutting taxes, the Drill Here, Drill Now lies, subtle racism and lying about his record.

Ashwin Madia has built a grassroots campaign. This is critical. He's not relying on advertising and mailings. His volunteers are out every night talking to folks at their doors and making phone calls every day and night. This personalized contact really makes a difference.

The combination of Obama, Madia and all the state House candidates filling the DFL database means that Democrats will get a lot of voters out to the polls on election day. There is a unique dynamic this year in that all candidates at all levels are coordinating their efforts. This coordination is going to mean a few extra percentage points for Madia.

The latest poll indicates that Ashwin is leading by 5%.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee today released a Bennett Petts & Normington survey of 400 likely voters in Minnesota's third Congressional district found Iraq war veteran Ashwin Madia with a solid lead over Republican politician Erik Paulsen. The head to head shows Madia with 44 percent of the vote to Paulsen's 39 percent, while Independence candidate David Dillon takes 8 percent -- 9 percent remain undecided. The survey was conducted September 29 - 30 and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

In the survey, 82 percent of respondents said that the country is "off on the wrong track" and when asked who would "take us in a new direction," Ashwin Madia led 40 - 16 percent over Paulsen.
(DCCC.org)

How can a man who was unknown one year ago, outpoll an established, conservative Republican? I believe there are two main factors.

First, is money. Ashwin has raised slightly more than Paulsen in the last six months and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has ten times the money that the NRCC has. Actually, its so bad that TwoPuttTommy reports about a rumor that the NRCC pulled an ad buy for Paulsen. Everyone knows that with their resources stretched so thin by empty coffers and many races, the NRCC cannot waste money on any losing campaigns.

Ashwin can buy plenty of ads on his own behalf. So can Paulsen as he has plenty of cash to spend. However, the DCCC have been running a lot of ads in the Twin Cities extolling Ashwin and pointing out how conservative, wrong-headed and out-of-touch Paulsen is. That is the advantage. Even Paulsen admits that he's being outspent 4-to-1. Since when did the Republican contender for an open seat get outspent?

Secondly, its Paulsen's party. The Republican Party as a brand is in free fall. Bad news caused by or about Republicans is splashed across the headlines every day. As if being held responsible for a disastrous Iraq War, foreclosure crisis and healthcare crisis weren't enough. They've shown their incompetence, their greed and their corruption over the last 8 years. Top it off with driving the economy into the ditch and the Republican brand has never been less popular.

Fewer people than ever are self-identifying as Republicans while people indicating they are Democrats are way up.

As I mentioned earlier, Paulsen is aware of his party's brand. There is no party affiliation on his lawn signs, literature or website. But since he's being outspent 4-to-1, voters have seen the ads and literature identifying him as a Republican even though he won't do so himself.

The only thing Paulsen has left is to campaign dirty.

However, that is also likely to backfire in his face as we progressive bloggers and a good number of reporters in the media won't let him get away with his lying about Ashwin Madia nor his racist slurs:

Check out this video from the DFL -- it's a recording of Ron Carey and Geoff Michel playing the race card against Ashwin Madia this past week:

Here's a hint -- when someone asks if you're using racially charged language in your efforts to set a candidate apart from the voters he's trying to entice, you don't say "that's for voters to decide," you don't say "he's part of a different demographic," and you don't try to explain your idiotic comments away. You say "NO."
(MN Campaign Report)

The Republicans have tried to saddle their card-check lies upon Ashwin, despite numerous news organizations fact-checking their lies. As part of the their Drill Here, Drill Now lies, they've tried to accuse him of opposing all drilling. These lies aren't working because the narrative is about our failing economy and failed Republican economic policies.

Finally, voters want to know where Paulsen stands on the issues. Voters don't respect candidates who triangulate and won't take strong stands on the issues of the day. Paulsen is virtually issue free. I've documented that when he has said something on Iraq that he's been incoherent. The DFL Party recently released a list of questions they think he should answer.

1. Would you have voted for the financial bailout package that came before Congress on Monday? What is your solution to get the country back on track economically?
2. Do you believe that the federal government should negotiate with pharmaceutical companies to lower the cost of prescription drugs?
3. Do you believe that global warming is caused by humans? Why or why not?
4. Do you believe in teaching creationism in public schools?
5. How do you propose to balance the federal budget?
6. What is your position on the wars in Iraq and troop withdrawal from the region? Why don't you list your position on your campaign website?
7. How do you propose that America reduce its dependence on foreign oil and reduce gas prices?
8. How do you propose to reform our country's education system in order to improve America's competitiveness throughout the world?
9. Do you support expansion of the State Children's Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP) to ensure that currently uninsured children receive quality health-care coverage?
10. Are you against a woman's right to choose even if the life of the mother is in danger or in cases of rape or incest?
    (DFL.org)