Why Franken has lead over Coleman in new poll

The Big E's picture

The recent string of polls in the Minnesota Senate race indicating widely disparate findings raise one question. Why? Why did SurveyUSA have Norm Coleman leading Al Franken by 10%, 43%-33%, then the Star Tribune poll have Al up by 9%, 43%-34% (MoE 3.7%)?

The answer is in the cross-tabs.

In the SurveyUSA poll, 37% self-identify as Democrats, 30% as Republicans. This is inaccurate. For at least a year, the average in polls has been fluctuating around 40% Democrats and 25% Republicans. By getting such a higher percentage of Republicans, both John McCain and Norm Coleman did far better than they probably are. The Strib has a more realistic break-down:

The poll detected a significant increase in Minnesotans who label themselves as Democrats. Forty-two percent of likely voters identified themselves as Democrats, compared with 27 percent who said they were independents, and 26 percent who said they were Republicans.
(Strib)

The Republican brand is in the toilet. A failing economy given to us by the most unpopular President in history, a hugely unpopular war and countless Republican corruption scandals ... oh yea ... did I mention incompetence ... have convinced many Republicans that their party is horrible at governing. They are abandoning ship. Any poll that doesn't have this 40-25 spread isn't accurate.

The big purple guy loves no one

I am totally confused. I have always been one to figure things out on my own and supported both parties over the years. This "bailout" or "rescue" (depending on spin) royally sucks and got me searching on my own for answers to both parties claims. Does anyone here have an answer for Barney Frank's denial of a problem with Fannie and Feddie in 2001, 2002 and 2003. Sorry folks, its on YOU TUBE. Believe me it broke my heart also. I want an answer as to why this clown is still in office. It hurts the party. Hurting in mn.

Oligarchy always gets their way...

I suggest this Glenn Greenwald post to explain the whole bail-out situation. Glenn claims that it is business as usual:

Bailout follows the 10 normal principles for how our government functions

This is why progressives need to get involved in the Democratic Party. We need to take it over. We need Democrats in office who believe in transparent, open government.

Basically, the current MYTH

Basically, the current MYTH is self correcting markets. No one looked at the real houses on streets to see more and more empty houses. Everyone doing door knocking these last couple of years gave plenty of warnings, about the huge increase of empty houses. The ghost town quality of some neighborhoods was very scary!

Empty houses indicate total loss to anything connecting to those mortgages. A single bank owner would probably have compromised to have a smaller profit by freezing mortgage payments rather than risk the house going to foreclosure. Multi-owner securitized decision making believed that the risk of foreclosure was "spread", and therefore did not work to prevent foreclosures.

Well the mortgage market did self correct - downward. Now the empty houses are worth even less. Owners who were struggling to make rising mortgage payments on mortgage that was higher than the value of the house, had more incentive to give up.

Add to all of this that the mortgages went into markets that were not regulated and did not have reserves to take any significant loss, so just like the 1929 market crash, very little was needed to crash the whole thing. Yep, the risk was spread enough so the bad decisions of the mortgage lenders caused all financial institutions to start to fail.

Suddenly all the capitalist super rich lenders are begging for socialist solution of bailout from the taxes of working people. Instead of the Democratic policy of government regulation of markets requiring reserves, good accounting, full disclosure of mortgage conditions and risks and other regulations that have kept us safe we have the Republican solution of no regulations with government bailout of any crisis of super rich people. Note that the Republican solution never includes relief for the struggling homeowner who is trying to pay rising mortgage payments in a bad economy. Thus we have a bailout of the richest class on stocks and financial paper from middle class and working class taxes!

Here is the punchline:

The empty houses are still there. More foreclosures are still happening. We only bailed the "lenders" who caused the problem. We did not fix the problem. In other words, we are giving lifeboats to the people who punched a hole in the Titanic, not fixing the hole or minimizing the damage. And just like the Titanic, the rich people get the lifeboats first. Then lifeboats are gone, who is going to save (bail out) the middle class and working class people when the lifeboats are gone?

The problem of government by the Republicans,(of the rich, by the rich and for the rich) is that rich are so greedy, the whole US economy is tanking.

Yeah, I'm confused, too

Is Barney Frank really so powerful, that he can ruin the economy of the United States? The answer is: nah. That's ridiculous. He's one voice, a senior congressman on the Finance Committee, and you can use YouTube to quote statements that he made years ago but that's not going to apply to what Wall Street decides to do in 2008.

One guy did not destroy the independence of finance capitalism in the United States. If you want to blame a party or politicians, "confused," you're better off blaming Republicans especially conservative Republicans who wanted to deregulate. Republicans ran Congress and the White House in those years you mention (2001, 2002, and 2003) and they hated Barney Frank and the Democrats even back then. So you gotta ask yourself--if you want to assign blame to politicians and a party: are you gonna blame the party OUT of power during those years you cited--or the party IN power?

Franken, Coleman Poll

Big E,

Thank you for the clarification on why there are such significant differences in the polls.
It's unfortunate but not unexpected that that the media that is primarily in the pocket of
republicans would not want to expose the TRUTH to the polls.

Another thing I think we should keep in the back of our mind is that these telephone polls are not reaching the cellphone only users (the majority of the 30 and unders).
It is our young people who can see what is happening to their futures and it is going to be with GREAT help from them that we take back our country!

Brothers`& sisters let's stick together and make sure our family, friends, neighbors, coworkers....etc. are registered to vote and informed on how extremely important it is for EVERY ONE of their votes to be counted.

Peace
Marlys Fox

I checked RCP

Survey USA ALWAYS has McCain leading. In all battelground states where Obama was leading, SurveyUSA would always say McCan by 1. Even in states where Obama led by 10 pts, SurveyUsa would still have McCain +1. SuveyUSA is worthless.

Justice will only exist where those not affected by injustice are filled with the same amount of indignation as those offended.

Franken was against the bailout

That's why he he is cruising to victory. Like Walz and Bachman, he sees what the people want and gives it to them. Coleman and Klobuchar are convinced that they know what is right for us (along with Betty!, Ellison, Oberstar, etc.).

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.